03178naa a2200253 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902200140006002400390007410000170011324501580013026000090028850003550029752019920065265300300264465300290267465300140270365300210271770000150273870000190275370000190277270000190279177301140281010645992024-04-17       2024    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d  a0301-47977 a10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.1208082DOI1 aNUÑEZ, J.A.  aClimate change and land cover effects on water yield in a subtropical watershed spanning the yungas-chaco transition of Argentina.h[electronic resource]  c2024  aArticle history: Received 26 October 2023, Revised 29 February 2024, Accepted 31 March 2024, Available online 9 April 2024, Version of Record 9 April 2024. --  Correspondence: Baldassini, P.; Universidad de Buenos Aires, INIA La Estanzuela, Av. San Martín 4453, Argentina, Ruta 50 km 11, Colonia, Buenos Aires, Uruguay; email:pbaldass@agro.uba.ar --  aABSTRACT.- The demand for mountain water resources is increasing, and their availability is threatened by climate change, emphasizing the urgency for effective protection and management. The upper Sali-Dulce watershed holds vital significance as it contributes the majority of the Sali-Dulce water resources, supporting a densely populated dry region in Northwestern Argentina, covering an area of 24,217 km2. However, the potential impact of climate change and land use/land cover change on water yield in this watershed remains uncertain. This study employs the InVEST Annual Water Yield model to analyze the average water yield in the watershed and evaluate its potential changes under future scenarios of climate and land use/land cover change. InVEST was calibrated using data from multiple river gauges located across the watershed, indicating satisfactory performance (R2 = 0.751, p-value = 0.0054). Precipitation and evapotranspiration were the most important variables explaining water yield in the area, followed by land use. Water yield showed a notable concentration in the montane area with 40% of the watershed accounting for 80% of the water yield, underscoring the importance of conserving natural land cover in this critical zone. Climate change scenarios project an increase in water yield ranging from 21 to 75%, while the effects of land cover change scenarios on water yield vary, with reforestation scenarios leading to reductions of up to 15% and expansions in non-irrigated agriculture resulting in increases of up to 40%. Additionally, water yield distribution may become more concentrated or dispersed, largely dependent on the type of land cover. The combined scenarios highlight the pivotal role of land cover in adapting to climate change. Our findings provide valuable insights for designing future studies and developing policies aimed at implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change within the Salí-Dulce watershed. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd  aInVEST annual water yield  aMountain water resources  aScenarios  aSpatial analysis1 aAGUIAR, S.1 aJOBBÁGY, E.G.1 aJIMÉNEZ, Y.G.1 aBALDASSINI, P.  tJournal of Environmental Management. 2024, Volume 358, e120808. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120808