03876naa a2200913 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902200140006002400340007410000180010824500910012626000090021750004510022652010900067765300240176765300250179165300290181665300260184565300190187170000140189070000140190470000150191870000140193370000180194770000170196570000150198270000170199770000150201470000150202970000150204470000220205970000150208170000140209670000200211070000140213070000150214470000140215970000220217370000180219570000130221370000150222670000180224170000160225970000160227570000150229170000120230670000200231870000150233870000160235370000190236970000160238870000210240470000150242570000180244070000160245870000170247470000220249170000190251370000190253270000190255170000190257070000170258970000160260670000220262270000170264470000140266170000120267570000170268770000130270470000200271770000130273770000140275070000130276470000130277770000130279070000120280370000150281577301320283010639412023-01-10       2022    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d  a1748-93267 a10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c2DOI1 aGUARIN, J. R.  aEvidence for increasing global wheat yield potential. [Letter].h[electronic resource]  c2022  aArticle history: Received 13 June 2022; Accepted 30 November 2022; Published 12 December 2022. -- Corresponding author: Jose Rafael Guarin, E-mail: j.guarin@columbia.edu -- LICENSE: Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ) -- Supplementary material for this article is available online (http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c ) --  aWheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.   © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd  aCrop model ensemble  aGlobal food security  aRadiation use efficiency  aWheat potential yield  aYield increase1 aMARTRE, P1 aEWERT, F.1 aWEBBER, H.1 aDUERI, S.1 aCALDERINI, D.1 aREYNOLDS, M.1 aMOLERO, G.1 aMIRALLES, D.1 aGARCIA, G.1 aSLAFER, G.1 aGIUNTA, F.1 aPEQUENO, D. N. L.1 aSTELLA, T.1 aAHMED, M.1 aALDERMAN, P. D.1 aBASSO, B.1 aBERGER, A.1 aBINDI, M.1 aBRACHO-MUJICA, G.1 aCAMMARANO, D.1 aCHEN, Y.1 aDUMONT, B.1 aREZAEI, E. E.1 aFERERES, E.1 aFERRISE, R.1 aGAISER, T.1 aGAO, Y.1 aGARCIA-VILA, M.1 aGAYLER, S.1 aHOCHMAN, Z.1 aHOOGENBOOM, G.1 aHUNT, L. A.1 aKERSEBAUM, K. C.1 aNENDEL, C.1 aOLESEN, J. E.1 aPALOSUO, T.1 aPRIESACK, E.1 aPULLENS, J. W. M.1 aRODRÍGUEZ, A.1 aRÖTTER, R. P.1 aRUIZ RAMOS, M.1 aSEMENOV, M. A.1 aSENAPATI, N.1 aSIEBERT, S.1 aSRIVASTAVA, A. M.1 aSTÖCKLE, C.1 aSUPIT, I.1 aTAO, F.1 aTHORBURN, P.1 aWANG, E.1 aWEBER, T. K. D.1 aXIAO, L.1 aZHANG, Z.1 aZHAO, C.1 aZHAO, J.1 aZHAO, Z.1 aZHU, Y.1 aASSENG, S.  tEnvironmental Research Letters, 12 December 2022, Volume 17, 124045. OPEN ACCESS. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c