Fecha/hora: 11/06/2024 13:49:59

Biblioteca(s): | INIA Las Brujas.
Fecha corriente: | 23/11/2016
Fecha de la última actualización: | 19/09/2018
Autoria: | FERNANDES, K.; GIANNINI, A.; VERCHOT, L.; BAETHGEN, W.; PINEDO-VASQUEZ, M.
Afiliación: | KATIA FERNANDES, Universidad de Columbia/ IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society); ALESSANDRA GIANNINI, Universidad de Columbia/ IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society); LOUIS VERCHOT, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia; WALTER BAETHGEN, Universidad de Columbia/ IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society); MIGUEL PINEDO-VASQUEZ, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia; Earth Institute Center for Environmental Sustainability, Columbia University, USA.
Título: | Decadal covariability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations.
Complemento del título: | Research Letter
Año de publicación: | 2015
Fuente/Imprenta: | Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, v. 42, no. 16, p. 6793?6801.
DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063911
Idioma: | Inglés

Notas:

Publication History: Issue online: 15 September 2015 // version of record online: 26 August 2015 // Accepted manuscript online: 8 May 2015 // Manuscript Accepted: 4 May 2015 // 
Manuscript Revised: 1 May 2015 // Manuscript Received: 19 March 2015

Contenido:

ABSTRACT.

Abstract The unusual severity and return time of the 2005 and 2010 dry-season droughts in western Amazon is attributed partly to decadal climate fluctuations and a modest drying trend. Decadal variability of western Amazon hydroclimate is highly correlated to the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) north-south gradient (NSG). Shifts of dry and wet events frequencies are also related to the NSG phase, with a 66% chance of 3+ years of dry events per decade when NSG > 0 and 19% when NSG< 0. The western Amazon and NSG
decadal covariability is well reproduced in general circulation models (GCMs) historical (HIST) and preindustrial  control (PIC) experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The HIST and PIC also reproduce the shifts in dry and wet events probabilities, indicating potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase favors above normal frequency of western Amazon dry events in coming decades.

©2015. American Geophysical Union

Palabras-Clave: | AMAZON CLIMATE; CMIP5; DECADAL VARIABILITY; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS; PREDICTABILITY.
Thesagro: | CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO.
Categoría del tema: | --
Registro original: | INIA Las Brujas (LB)
Ejemplares: | LB - (101240-1) - ADD - AP - DD - PP/Research Letter Geophysical Research -  - RBI - LB - DIS